Property Market Forecast 2024 — House Prices Predictions from Expert
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Key takeaways
Currently Australia’s housing is so undersupplied that I’ve rarely encountered a supply-demand inflection point like this that requires such attention. And it’s only going to get worse.
Sure there are unknowns and risks ahead, but there are also five certainties for our housing markets: 1. Inflation will stick around a little longer than the RBA would like 2. Interest rates will eventually fall 3. The scarcity of dwellings for both purchase and rent will not go away any time soon. 4. Rents will keep rising 5. Astoundingly good demographics and strong population growth will keep fuelling demand for housing.
This creates a window of opportunity before falling interest rates create a property market reset.
Inflation has now peaked and it’s likely so have interest rates, and in due course consumer confidence will return and the markets will continue their upward trajectory.
Here are some trends to watch for in 2024:- 1. The recovery phase of the property market cycle will continue. 2. Interest rate full eventually. 3. Our property markets will become more fragmented. 4. Strong migration will continue to pin our housing markets. 5. Rents will keep rising strongly. 6. Strategic investors will keep the property market. 7. Living in the right neighbourhood will be more important than ever. 8. Our economy will remain robust, and employment will keep growing.
What’s the outlook for the Australian property markets for the rest of 2024?
Have interest rates really peaked now and when will they start coming down or will the RBA raise rates again in 2024?
Will the “fixed interest rate cliff” and affordability issues cause a round of distressed sales and prices to fall or even a property market crash in 2024?
These are common questions people are asking now that the housing markets have experienced 13 months of rising values.
It is now clear that our housing market has defied the many doomsday forecasts and has moved through the bottom of the cyclical downturn early in 2023 experiencing a V-shaped recovery making the 2022 downturn one of the sharpest but shortest ones in history.
The price upturn is now firmly entrenched, rising for 14 months in a row and with home prices hitting fresh record highs in many markets .
Meanwhile, auction clearance rates are delivering consistent results showing the depth of our major capital city housing markets and the year has started with increasing buyer sentiment – in fact some FOMO (fear of missing out) is creeping in as house prices reach new peaks.
Auction results and consumer sentiment have both shown a historically strong relationship with future housing trends.
Consumer sentiment also recorded a solid rise in the last few months, signalling a lift in confidence.
A rise in sentiment suggests households will have a better ability to make decisions around large financial commitments, like a property purchase.
Of course, each state is at its own stage of the property cycle and within each capital city there are multiple markets.
While some regional areas outperformed the capital cities in 2022, capital city property markets have led the price upturn in 2023 and regional areas had slower growth.
And after underperforming throughout the pandemic period, unit prices recorded stronger growth for much of 2023 and that’s likely can to continue in 2024 as affordability constraints will mean more Australians trade backyards for balconies and courtyards.
Here’s what the big four banks forecasting for property prices in 2024
ANZ forecasts capital city property prices to lift 5-6 per cent in 2024. The biggest gain is tipped for Brisbane, 9 to 10 per cent, and Perth property values could increase by 1-11% – Sydney by 4-5 per cent. Melbourne prices are predicted to lift 2 to 3 per cent.
CBA expects capital city prices to lift 5 per cent, with small variations across the cities. Brisbane is tipped for 6 per cent growth, Melbourne and Perth for 5 per cent, Sydney for 4 per cent and Adelaide for 1 per cent.
NAB predicts prices across the capitals to rise an average of 5.4 per cent. Prices are expected to lift 6.5 per cent in Brisbane, 6.2 per cent in Perth and Adelaide, 5.5 per cent in Melbourne and 5 per cent in Sydney. Hobart values are expected to end the year flat.
Westpac forecasts 6 per cent growth across the combined capitals. Perth is pencilled in for the highest growth at 10 per cent, followed by Brisbane at 8 per cent, Sydney at 6, Adelaide at 4 and Melbourne at 3
You can always beat the averages.
While it’s likely that property price growth will be a little lower in 2024 than it was last year, the good news is that if you don’t like the outlook for what property will do on a national level, you can always beat it by investing in the right property in the right location.
Now by that, I don’t mean look for the next hotspot.
I mean buying quality properties in locations that will outperform in the long term such as gentrifying suburbs.
You see…property offers countless opportunities to improve your results through your own time, skills and knowledge – so you don’t need to settle for average.
And there’s more to it than just location. You can add value through refurbishment, or redevelopment.
Oxford Economics recently made the following forecasts of where house prices will be in 3 years time.
The latest housing market stats
Dwelling values have remained robust as CoreLogic’s national Home Value Index rose 0.6% in February, the strongest monthly gain since October last year.
Here are the latest stats provided by CoreLogic for property price changes around Australia:
Source: CoreLogic 1st April 2023
In fact, all the research houses reported higher dwelling prices in March 2024:
Australia’s housing upswing continues in 2024 with CoreLogic’s national Home Value Index (HVI) rising 0.6% in March, on par with February’s increase, taking the current upswing in housing values through its 14th straight month of growth.
PropTrack reported that national home prices lifted 0.34% to hit a new record in March, bringing prices up 1.57% so far this year to sit 6.79% above March 2023 levels.
Dr Andrew Wilson’s My Housing Market reported that Home prices surged over March 2024 with a generalised surge in home prices reported over the March quarter, well ahead of the February quarter results. According to the latest data from My Housing Market, the national capital city median house price increased sharply by 2.7% to $1,125,923 in the March quarter compared to the February quarter.
We also keep track of “Asking Prices” as these are a good leading indicator for the property market because they reflect the sentiment of sellers and their expectations for the future value of their homes.
Sydney Property Asking Prices
Property type
Price ($)
Weekly Change
Monthly Change %
Annual % change
All Houses
1,895.349
-8.957
-0.2%
6.8%
All Units
788.356
-3.056
-1.2%
4.1%
Combined
1,449.525
-6.581
-0.4%
5.8%
Source:SQM Research, April 2024
Melbourne Property Asking Prices
Property type
Price ($)
Weekly Change
Monthly Change %
Annual % change
All Houses
1,260.094
-0.904
0.3%
7.2%
All Units
604.774
-0.493
-0.3%
2.4%
Combined
1,055.569
-0.776
0.2%
6.1%
Source:SQM Research, April 2024
Brisbane Property Asking Prices
Property type
Price ($)
Weekly Change
Monthly Change %
Annual % change
All Houses
1,081.092
3.858
1.1%
14.1%
All Units
599.498
2.852
1.7%
18.9%
Combined
961.234
3.608
1.2%
14.7%
Source:SQM Research, April 2024
Perth Property Asking Prices
Property type
Price ($)
Weekly Change
Monthly Change %
Annual % change
All Houses
981.533
7.766
2.5%
18.4%
All Units
507.620
-0.920
2.3%
17.5%
Combined
858.392
5.509
2.5%
18.1%
Source:SQM Research, April 2024
Adelaide Property Asking Prices
Property type
Price ($)
Weekly Change
Monthly Change %
Annual % change
All Houses
891.839
8.399
2.5%
15.5%
All Units
454.412
6.983
3.2%
13.9%
Combined
813.388
8.145
2.5%
15.3%
Source:SQM Research, April 2024
Canberra Property Asking Prices
Property type
Price ($)
Weekly Change
Monthly Change %
Annual % change
All Houses
1,166.102
-11.740
-2.5%
11.8%
All Units
599.213
3.012
0.4%
1.7%
Combined
960.609
-6.392
-1.9%
9.1%
Source:SQM Research, April 2024
Darwin Property Asking Prices
Property type
Price ($)
Weekly Change
Monthly Change %
Annual % change
All Houses
667.541
-1.941
1.2%
-0.2%
All Units
371.172
-0.172
-1.2%
-2.9%
Combined
551.297
-1.247
0.5%
-1.0%
Source:SQM Research, April 2024
Hobart Property Asking Prices
Property type
Price ($)
Weekly Change
Monthly Change %
Annual % change
All Houses
786.911
-3.184
-1.8%
-0.8%
All Units
5100.014
8.622
2.0%
-3.5%
Combined
745.281
-1.409
-1.5%
-1.1%
Source:SQM Research, April 2024
National Property Asking Prices
Property type
Price ($)
Weekly Change
Monthly Change %
Annual % change
All Houses
910.019
-6.696
-0.4%
10.4%
All Units
538.412
-0.429
0.6%
6.2%
Combined
830.601
-5.357
-0.3%
9.8%
Source:SQM Research, April 2024
Capital Cities Property Asking Prices
Property type
Price ($)
Weekly Change
Monthly Change %
Annual % change
All Houses
1,360.165
-2.369
0.1%
8.9%
All Units
667.617
-0.700
-0.6%
5.8%
Combined
1,156.746
-1.879
-0.1%
8.1%
Source:SQM Research, April 2024
The fundamentals of what drives Australian property prices
In the medium term, property values will be linked to a range of factors that tend to boil down to two basic economic concepts: consumer confidence and supply and demand.
Understanding how these concepts work together to affect real estate is crucial to one’s understanding of what’s ahead for our housing markets.
On the other hand, if you look at what’s ahead for housing markets over the next decade or two, and take a telescopic view, rather than a microscopic view, the two big factors driving our housing markets will be demographics (how many of us there are, have we want to live and where we want to live) and the wealth of the nation.
But first, let’s dig a bit deeper into the key underlying factors that will be influencing our property markets in the medium term.
1. Interest rates/affordability
While many people believe interest rates are a key driver of property values, and that’s why there were so many pessimistic property forecasts as interest rates rose through 2022-23, our housing markets showed considerable resilience and kept rising in value despite the 13 interest rate rises the RBA threw at us.
Of course, falling interest rates and the subsequent increased affordability are strong drivers of property price growth, but the reverse isn’t true.
House prices are driven by many other factors, not just interest rates.
This would take the Reserve Bank of Australia cash rate back to 3.6 per cent in the second half of 2024 for the first time since May 2023 – down from an existing 12-year high of 4.35 per cent.
Of course, this extra borrowing capacity would put a fire under our property markets.
However the recent fall in the unemployment rate and the fact that stage 3 tax cuts will give Aussies a little bit more money in their pocket has now made many of the banks suggest the first interest rate cut won’t come till later in 2024.
2. Supply and demand
Housing supply has a significant influence over house prices in the short term: an undersupply puts pressure on prices to rise while an oversupply does the opposite.
Despite very strong population growth through 2023, we’re just not building enough new dwellings, and this has put pressure on housing supply reflected in low rental vacancy rates and higher house prices.
At the same time, the strong absorption of new listings for sale has kept total listings in the market suppressed, intensifying competition between buyers.
These factors have created a sharp shortage of housing, outweighing the negative impact of rates on prices.
And there is no end in sight as building approvals (which are a good indication of future supply) are running at very low levels.
And just because a new apartment complex has been approved, it doesn’t mean it will get built.
At the moment very few new complexes are coming out of the ground because it’s not financially viable to build them at today’s market prices.
Of course, this means future new developments will have to sell at prices considerably higher than today’s market value and this will, in turn, pull up the value of established apartments.
3. Consumer confidence
Consumer confidence is a critical factor affecting the direction of property prices.
We won’t make big financial decisions like moving home or buying an investment property unless we feel confident about our economic future and our financial stability.
2023 was a year where consumer confidence was at historic lows because of all the economic and socio-political issues that confronted us.
I believe that during 2024 consumer confidence will rise as inflation slowly comes under control and we realise interest rates have peaked and are going to eventually fall.
At the same time, the “wealth effect” a very improving economy and rising property values will lead to further consumer confidence and bring home buyers and sellers back into the market.
4. Economic climate
Another key factor that affects the value of the property market is the overall health of the economy.
This is generally measured by economic indicators such as the gross domestic product (GDP), employment data, manufacturing activity, the prices of goods, etc.
Broadly speaking, the economy is strong and the RBA is trying to slow it down to bring inflation under control, but currently, everybody who wants a job can get a job and this will underpin our housing markets even if the economy falters a little moving forward.
5. Population growth
Australia has experienced a record-breaking rate of net overseas migration, estimated to have reached around 500,000 people in the 12 months to September 2023.
While population growth has always been a key driver supporting our property markets, the influx has pushed our supply/demand balance off-kilter and is key to the increase in housing prices and the shortage of rental properties.
6. Availability of credit
When the credit (the ability to borrow from the banks) is readily accessible, with lower interest rates and less stringent lending criteria, it tends to stimulate the housing market since more people find themselves able to borrow money to buy homes, leading to increased demand for housing.
On the flip side, when credit is tightened through higher interest rates or stricter lending criteria (as happened when APRA made the banks tighten the purse strings in 2016-7), the effect can be a cooling of the housing market.
Such measures are usually a deliberate policy response to an overheated market, aiming to reduce the risk of a “property bubble” and subsequent crash.
7. Investor Sentiment
This sentiment, essentially the collective attitude and outlook of investors towards property markets, can significantly influence both the demand for and the value of real estate.
Investors generally account for around one-third of all property transactions so positive investor sentiment can drive up property prices, especially in sought-after areas.
Conversely, negative investor sentiment, as occurred during the market downturn of 2022, can lead to a decrease in property values.
If investors believe that property prices will stagnate or fall, they may be less inclined to invest, or they might choose to sell off their properties, increasing supply in the market.
8. Government incentives
Government incentives can have both direct and indirect impacts on the real estate sector.
One of the most direct ways government incentives affect property values is through policies aimed at stimulating demand.
For instance, initiatives like the First Home Owner Grant (FHOG) or stamp duty concessions for first-time buyers directly increase buying capacity, leading to greater demand for property.
Another aspect is the development incentives provided by the government to promote specific types of property development, such as high-density housing or urban renewal projects.
These incentives can increase property values in targeted areas by improving infrastructure, accessibility, and community facilities, making them more desirable places to live.
Tax policies and regulations also play a crucial role.
Negative gearing can increase demand for investment properties, pushing up prices.
And every time there is talk about removing negative gearing or amending taxes including land tax, investors shy away from our housing markets.
Australian housing market predictions for 2024
The last few years have shown us how hard it is to forecast property trends, and as always there will be headwinds and tailwinds buffeting our property markets.
Currently Australia’s housing is so undersupplied that I’ve rarely encountered a supply-demand inflection point like this that requires such attention.
And it’s only going to get worse.
Drivers of property price growth in 2024 will include:
Continued strong population growth at a time when we are not producing enough supply of new dwellings. This extreme shortfall will exert upward pressure on house prices and rents throughout 2024.
I anticipate that interest rates will fall in the second half of 2024 and at some stage next year it is likely APRA will relax its mortgage serviceability buffer. This is currently at 3% and the combination of these factors will increase borrowing capacity.
FOMO (fear of missing out) will creep in as buyers realise all the price falls of 2022 have now been made up and the media will keep mentioning new record prices being achieved.
Headwinds:
Stretched affordability will remain an issue in 2024, however, buyers will want to get on with their lives and therefore choose townhouses or apartments over homes or move to more affordable suburbs.
The RBA wants to lift unemployment to help slow inflation. Financial uncertainty and worries about job security will stop some buyers from making important decisions like buying a home or an investment property.
Poor consumer sentiment was a feature of 2023, holding back property buying decisions, and until there is more certainty about our economy and confidence that interest rates have peaked and inflation is under control, it’s likely that consumer confidence will remain low in the first half of 2024.
The strongest performers are likely to be Brisbane and Perth, where population growth is expected to outpace supply more than in other cities.
ANZ believes that real wage growth from early 2024 and modest interest rate easing from late 2024 will also support borrowing capacity and prices.
With the increase in value of houses strongly outpacing the apartment market recently, now with the differential in price between units and houses at the highest level on record, and with houses becoming more unaffordable for many, I can see strong capital growth ahead for family-friendly apartments in great neighbourhoods.
Here are Dr Andrew Wilson’s forecasts for 2024, and he has an enviable track record of getting it right.
8 economic and property trends to watch out for in 2024
1. The recovery phase of the market will continue in 2024
Property price growth will continue in 2024, albeit at a much lower rate and our housing markets will be fragmented as affordability will affect many homebuyers.
2. Interest rates will fall
Interest rates will peak in early 2024, if they haven’t already done so, but are likely to remain higher for longer than many would like as inflation will remain stubbornly higher than the RBA hopes for a little longer.
When interest rates eventually fall, which could be in late 2024, this is likely to encourage greater housing investment and more homebuyers.
3. Our property market will be even more fragmented
Of course, there was really never one Sydney property market or one Melbourne property market.
There are markets within markets – there are houses, apartments, townhouses and villa units located in the outer suburbs, middle ring suburbs, inner suburbs and the CBD, and they’re all behaving differently.
But our markets will be much more fragmented moving forward as some demographics struggle with cost-of-living, rent and mortgage cost increases (at a time of low wage growth) more than others.
It will either stop them from getting into the property markets or severely restrict their borrowing capacity which will negatively impact the lower end of the property markets.
Meanwhile, many first-home buyers who borrowed to their full capacity will have difficulty keeping up with their mortgage payments at the time of rising interest rates or when their fixed-rate loans convert to variable rates.
In other words, there will be little impetus for capital growth at the lower end of the property market.
That’s why I would only invest in areas where the locals’ income is growing faster than the national average – such as gentrifying suburbs – as locals will have higher disposable incomes and be able to and are likely to be prepared to pay a premium to live in these locations.
Many of these locations are the inner and middle-ring suburbs of our capital cities which are gentrifying as these wealthier cohorts move in.
At the same time, I see well-located properties in our capital cities outperforming regional property markets.
In fact our capital cities outperformed regional housing markets over the last year or so.
In the past one of regional Australia’s allure was its affordability compared to capital cities.
However, the surge in prices over the COVID lockdowns narrowed the price gap and this diminishing affordability undermines one of the key advantages regional markets had over metropolitan counterparts.
The measure of years to save a 20% deposit for the median regional home on a median regional income has risen from 7.4 years in early 2020 to 9.7 years, as opposed to 10.0 years for capital cities.
4. Migration
Net overseas migration to Australia will remain strong in 2024, however, the Federal government will lower the rate of temporary migrants coming to Australia.
This will keep driving rental growth as migrants tend to rent.
Only 38% of migrants own a home after being in Australia for five years, yet 71% of migrants own their home after 10 years.
5. Rents will keep rising
There is no end in sight for our rental crisis and rent prices will continue skyrocketing into 2024.
In fact, increased rental demand at a time of very low vacancy rates will see rentals continue to rise throughout the next few years.
6. Strategic investors will keep entering the property market
And they’ll squeeze out first-home buyers.
As rents continue to rise and the share of first-home buyers continues dropping, strategic investors with a realistic long-term focus will return to the market.
7. Neighbourhood will be more important than ever
In our new “Covid Normal” world, people will pay a premium for the ability to work, live and play within a 20-minute drive, bike ride or walk from home.
Many inner suburbs of Australia’s capital cities and parts of their middle suburbs already meet the 20-minute neighbourhood tests, but very few outer suburbs do because there is a lower developmental density, less diversity in its community, and less access to public transport.
And ‘neighbourhood’ is important for property investors too, and here’s why.
In short, it’s all to do with capital growth, and we all know capital growth is critical for investment success, or just to create more stored wealth in the value of your home.
This is key because we know that 80% of a property’s performance is dependent on the location and its neighbourhood – in fact, some locations have even outperformed others by 50-100% over the past decade.
And it’s likely that moving forward, thanks to the current environment, people will place an even greater emphasis on neighbourhood and inner and middle-ring suburbs where more affluent occupants and tenants will be living.
These ‘liveable’ neighbourhoods with close amenities are where capital growth will outperform.
What sets these neighbourhoods apart is the demographics – these locations are generally gentrifying or are lifestyle locations and destination locations that aspirational and affluent people want to live in.
So lifestyle and destination suburbs where there is a wide range of amenities within a 20-minute walk or drive are likely to outperform in the future, fetching premium prices in 2024.
8. Our economy and employment will remain robust
Sure the RBA continues in its efforts to slow down our spending a little in order to bring down inflation.
But despite this our economy will keep growing (albeit a little slower) and the unemployment rate will remain low thanks to the many new jobs created as our economy grows.
Local Capital Cities Market Predictions for 2024
As we know, there is not one Australian housing market, but markets within those markets, and again within those.
To give a better view of market predictions for the next 12 months in your area, here’s a breakdown of each local capital city’s market predictions for 2024.
Melbourne housing values lifted 0.27% in March according to Proptrack bringing them up 1.71% year-on-year, the strongest annual growth since June 2022.
Even so, prices in Melbourne remain 3.35% below their peak in March 2022.
The price recovery in Melbourne is lagging behind Sydney and Brisbane but remains ahead of Hobart and Canberra, with prices up 2.30% from their January 2023 low.
At Metropole Melbourne, we’re finding that on-the-ground sentiment has changed and strategic investors and homebuyers are accepting that inflation has probably peaked and that interest rates are likely to peak in the next few months, so they are getting on with property decisions.
While more buyers are active in the market, there is currently a shortage of good quality stock on the market – while house prices have been resilient, Melbourne rental rates are experiencing weaker conditions due to a higher supply of rental properties, and less demand.
Sydney’s housing values also lifted 0.40% in March to a fresh peak according to Proptrack and despite an uplift in new listings hitting the market in Sydney, buyer demand has absorbed some of that increase with prices rising further.
Following a period of slower home price growth during the holidays, growth has reaccelerated with prices rising 1.79% in the first quarter of this year, the strongest quarterly growth since the three months to September 2023.
Over the last few months, the sentiment of both Sydney property buyers and sellers has changed and buyers are pushing up the price of well-located A-grade homes and “family-friendly” apartments which are still in short supply, but B-grade properties are taking longer to sell and informed buyers are avoiding C-grade properties.
This flight to quality means that moving forward the various sectors of the Sydney real estate market will be segmented, which is a more “normal” property market.
Sydney’s strong auction clearance trends are also a great “in time” indicator of market sentiment and a leading indicator of future property prices.
Home prices in Brisbane have risen at a fast pace in the year to date, and are now 12.90% above March 2023 levels. Proptrack reports that prices lifted a further 0.41% in March and are up 2.22% in the first quarter of 2024.
And there are many signs that Brisbane will still be one of the strongest housing markets in 2024.
Home prices have surpassed previous peaks, and if prices continue to grow at the same pace as over the past 3 months, home prices in Brisbane would be set to end the year up 8.0%, which would be close to double the average annual growth since 2010.
Our on-the-ground experience at Metropole Brisbane shows that there is emerging strong demand from both home buyers and property investors for A-grade homes and investment-grade properties.
Perth’s housing values have continued to outperform and Perth was the strongest market in the country for monthly and annual home price growth.
Prices surged 0.99% in March according to Proptrack – the 20th consecutive month of growth – and are up 18.62% on March 2023 levels, the strongest pace of annual growth on records back to 2010.
Record low supply amid strong buyer demand has resulted in a sellers’ market.
The relative affordability of the city’s homes, population growth, and very tight rental markets are also supporting home values.
Adelaide’s housing values rose s 0.31% month-on-month in March to a new peak and are now up 2.24% year to date.
Adelaide is one of the country’s top performing markets, with home prices up 13.47% year-on-year.
The comparative affordability of the city’s homes has seen prices defy the significant increase in interest rates since May 2022.
Low stock levels are also intensifying competition, with home prices in Adelaide rising at a fast pace over the past year.
Canberra’s property prices rose 0.67% in March according to Proptrack, bringing prices up 2.22% above their March 2023 levels, the strongest annual growth since September 2022.
With the price recovery in Canberra remaining underway, prices are now 4.34% below their March 2022 peak after recovering just over a third of their decline.
Hobart’s housing values
Declining home prices in Hobart persisted in March, falling a slight 0.03%.
Hobart remains the weakest capital city market when comparing annual price growth (-1.65%), as well as the change from peak (-7.90%).
However, this comes after several years of outperformance, as well as strong growth during the pandemic which has seen affordability deteriorate.
Home prices in Hobart are still up 36.1% since March 2020.
Long-term forecasts for Australian property markets (2025-2030)
Over the next decade, demand for housing is expected to benefit from the triple boost of rising population, rising jobs, and rising income.
Collectively this wealth effect will add around $860 billion of income over the next decade, a significant portion of which is likely could be directed towards housing.
The average Australian tend to spend 13% to 20% of their income and either rent or mortgage servicing.
Of course, no matter how many times you forecast property prices, it will always be difficult to predict exactly where property markets and prices will be in three months’ time, let alone 6-7 years into the future.
After all, history shows us that some properties will outperform others by 50-100% in terms of capital growth, so strategic property investors who buy investment-grade properties could expect to see the value of their properties more than double within the next seven to 10 years.
So we always have to take forecasts for Australian property markets with a big pinch of salt.
But what I am confident we’ll see for our future property markets comes off the back of our strong projected population increase.
Currently, there are about 26.5 million Australians and Australia’s population is forecast to rise to 29 million people by 2030.
This means 3 million more people will need somewhere to live and this will underpin our property markets.
What we predict for Australia’s property market is that there will be many more high-rise towers of apartments, not just in the CBD but in our middle-ring suburbs.
In fact, we are already starting to see this, particularly in Melbourne and Sydney.
And we also expect there will be lots more medium-density housing – in particular townhouses will be a popular way to live with modern large accommodation on more compact blocks of land.
This isn’t surprising because it’s often said that over the long term, the average annual growth rate for well-located capital city properties is about 7% (and we know that prices have risen 6.8% per annum over the past 30 years), which would mean, in general, well-located properties should double in value every 7-10 years.
That would put Australia’s median dwelling price at around $1.1 million in 2030.
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About Michael Yardney Michael is a director of Metropole Property Strategists who help their clients grow, protect and pass on their wealth through independent, unbiased property advice and advocacy. He’s once again been voted Australia’s leading property investment adviser and one of Australia’s 50 most influential Thought Leaders. His opinions are regularly featured in the media.
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Property Market Forecast 2024 — House Prices Predictions from Expert
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Key takeaways
Currently Australia’s housing is so undersupplied that I’ve rarely encountered a supply-demand inflection point like this that requires such attention. And it’s only going to get worse.
Sure there are unknowns and risks ahead, but there are also five certainties for our housing markets:
1. Inflation will stick around a little longer than the RBA would like
2. Interest rates will eventually fall
3. The scarcity of dwellings for both purchase and rent will not go away any time soon.
4. Rents will keep rising
5. Astoundingly good demographics and strong population growth will keep fuelling demand for housing.
This creates a window of opportunity before falling interest rates create a property market reset.
Inflation has now peaked and it’s likely so have interest rates, and in due course consumer confidence will return and the markets will continue their upward trajectory.
Here are some trends to watch for in 2024:-
1. The recovery phase of the property market cycle will continue.
2. Interest rate full eventually.
3. Our property markets will become more fragmented.
4. Strong migration will continue to pin our housing markets.
5. Rents will keep rising strongly.
6. Strategic investors will keep the property market.
7. Living in the right neighbourhood will be more important than ever.
8. Our economy will remain robust, and employment will keep growing.
These are common questions people are asking now that the housing markets have experienced 13 months of rising values.
It is now clear that our housing market has defied the many doomsday forecasts and has moved through the bottom of the cyclical downturn early in 2023 experiencing a V-shaped recovery making the 2022 downturn one of the sharpest but shortest ones in history.
The price upturn is now firmly entrenched, rising for 14 months in a row and with home prices hitting fresh record highs in many markets .
Meanwhile, auction clearance rates are delivering consistent results showing the depth of our major capital city housing markets and the year has started with increasing buyer sentiment – in fact some FOMO (fear of missing out) is creeping in as house prices reach new peaks.
Auction results and consumer sentiment have both shown a historically strong relationship with future housing trends.
Consumer sentiment also recorded a solid rise in the last few months, signalling a lift in confidence.
A rise in sentiment suggests households will have a better ability to make decisions around large financial commitments, like a property purchase.
Of course, each state is at its own stage of the property cycle and within each capital city there are multiple markets.
While some regional areas outperformed the capital cities in 2022, capital city property markets have led the price upturn in 2023 and regional areas had slower growth.
And after underperforming throughout the pandemic period, unit prices recorded stronger growth for much of 2023 and that’s likely can to continue in 2024 as affordability constraints will mean more Australians trade backyards for balconies and courtyards.
Here’s what the big four banks forecasting for property prices in 2024
You can always beat the averages.
While it’s likely that property price growth will be a little lower in 2024 than it was last year, the good news is that if you don’t like the outlook for what property will do on a national level, you can always beat it by investing in the right property in the right location.
Now by that, I don’t mean look for the next hotspot.
I mean buying quality properties in locations that will outperform in the long term such as gentrifying suburbs.
You see…property offers countless opportunities to improve your results through your own time, skills and knowledge – so you don’t need to settle for average.
And there’s more to it than just location. You can add value through refurbishment, or redevelopment.
Oxford Economics recently made the following forecasts of where house prices will be in 3 years time.
The latest housing market stats
Dwelling values have remained robust as CoreLogic’s national Home Value Index rose 0.6% in February, the strongest monthly gain since October last year.
Here are the latest stats provided by CoreLogic for property price changes around Australia:
Source: CoreLogic 1st April 2023
In fact, all the research houses reported higher dwelling prices in March 2024:
6.79% above March 2023 levels.
We also keep track of “Asking Prices” as these are a good leading indicator for the property market because they reflect the sentiment of sellers and their expectations for the future value of their homes.
Sydney Property Asking Prices
Source: SQM Research, April 2024
Melbourne Property Asking Prices
Source: SQM Research, April 2024
Brisbane Property Asking Prices
Source: SQM Research, April 2024
Perth Property Asking Prices
Source: SQM Research, April 2024
Adelaide Property Asking Prices
Source: SQM Research, April 2024
Canberra Property Asking Prices
Source: SQM Research, April 2024
Darwin Property Asking Prices
Source: SQM Research, April 2024
Hobart Property Asking Prices
Source: SQM Research, April 2024
National Property Asking Prices
Source: SQM Research, April 2024
Capital Cities Property Asking Prices
Source: SQM Research, April 2024
The fundamentals of what drives Australian property prices
Property prices are driven by a combination of factors, and as we move through property cycles, they all come together to influence whether property values rise or fall.
In the medium term, property values will be linked to a range of factors that tend to boil down to two basic economic concepts: consumer confidence and supply and demand.
Understanding how these concepts work together to affect real estate is crucial to one’s understanding of what’s ahead for our housing markets.
On the other hand, if you look at what’s ahead for housing markets over the next decade or two, and take a telescopic view, rather than a microscopic view, the two big factors driving our housing markets will be demographics (how many of us there are, have we want to live and where we want to live) and the wealth of the nation.
But first, let’s dig a bit deeper into the key underlying factors that will be influencing our property markets in the medium term.
1. Interest rates/affordability
While many people believe interest rates are a key driver of property values, and that’s why there were so many pessimistic property forecasts as interest rates rose through 2022-23, our housing markets showed considerable resilience and kept rising in value despite the 13 interest rate rises the RBA threw at us.
Of course, falling interest rates and the subsequent increased affordability are strong drivers of property price growth, but the reverse isn’t true.
House prices are driven by many other factors, not just interest rates.
Recently Australia’s biggest lender, the Commonwealth Bank, is forecasting 6 interest rate cuts in 2024 and 25 starting in September.
This would take the Reserve Bank of Australia cash rate back to 3.6 per cent in the second half of 2024 for the first time since May 2023 – down from an existing 12-year high of 4.35 per cent.
Of course, this extra borrowing capacity would put a fire under our property markets.
However the recent fall in the unemployment rate and the fact that stage 3 tax cuts will give Aussies a little bit more money in their pocket has now made many of the banks suggest the first interest rate cut won’t come till later in 2024.
2. Supply and demand
Housing supply has a significant influence over house prices in the short term: an undersupply puts pressure on prices to rise while an oversupply does the opposite.
Despite very strong population growth through 2023, we’re just not building enough new dwellings, and this has put pressure on housing supply reflected in low rental vacancy rates and higher house prices.
At the same time, the strong absorption of new listings for sale has kept total listings in the market suppressed, intensifying competition between buyers.
These factors have created a sharp shortage of housing, outweighing the negative impact of rates on prices.
And there is no end in sight as building approvals (which are a good indication of future supply) are running at very low levels.
And just because a new apartment complex has been approved, it doesn’t mean it will get built.
At the moment very few new complexes are coming out of the ground because it’s not financially viable to build them at today’s market prices.
Of course, this means future new developments will have to sell at prices considerably higher than today’s market value and this will, in turn, pull up the value of established apartments.
3. Consumer confidence
Consumer confidence is a critical factor affecting the direction of property prices.
We won’t make big financial decisions like moving home or buying an investment property unless we feel confident about our economic future and our financial stability.
2023 was a year where consumer confidence was at historic lows because of all the economic and socio-political issues that confronted us.
I believe that during 2024 consumer confidence will rise as inflation slowly comes under control and we realise interest rates have peaked and are going to eventually fall.
At the same time, the “wealth effect” a very improving economy and rising property values will lead to further consumer confidence and bring home buyers and sellers back into the market.
4. Economic climate
Another key factor that affects the value of the property market is the overall health of the economy.
This is generally measured by economic indicators such as the gross domestic product (GDP), employment data, manufacturing activity, the prices of goods, etc.
Broadly speaking, the economy is strong and the RBA is trying to slow it down to bring inflation under control, but currently, everybody who wants a job can get a job and this will underpin our housing markets even if the economy falters a little moving forward.
5. Population growth
Australia has experienced a record-breaking rate of net overseas migration, estimated to have reached around 500,000 people in the 12 months to September 2023.
While population growth has always been a key driver supporting our property markets, the influx has pushed our supply/demand balance off-kilter and is key to the increase in housing prices and the shortage of rental properties.
6. Availability of credit
When the credit (the ability to borrow from the banks) is readily accessible, with lower interest rates and less stringent lending criteria, it tends to stimulate the housing market since more people find themselves able to borrow money to buy homes, leading to increased demand for housing.
On the flip side, when credit is tightened through higher interest rates or stricter lending criteria (as happened when APRA made the banks tighten the purse strings in 2016-7), the effect can be a cooling of the housing market.
Such measures are usually a deliberate policy response to an overheated market, aiming to reduce the risk of a “property bubble” and subsequent crash.
7. Investor Sentiment
This sentiment, essentially the collective attitude and outlook of investors towards property markets, can significantly influence both the demand for and the value of real estate.
Investors generally account for around one-third of all property transactions so positive investor sentiment can drive up property prices, especially in sought-after areas.
Conversely, negative investor sentiment, as occurred during the market downturn of 2022, can lead to a decrease in property values.
If investors believe that property prices will stagnate or fall, they may be less inclined to invest, or they might choose to sell off their properties, increasing supply in the market.
8. Government incentives
Government incentives can have both direct and indirect impacts on the real estate sector.
One of the most direct ways government incentives affect property values is through policies aimed at stimulating demand.
For instance, initiatives like the First Home Owner Grant (FHOG) or stamp duty concessions for first-time buyers directly increase buying capacity, leading to greater demand for property.
Another aspect is the development incentives provided by the government to promote specific types of property development, such as high-density housing or urban renewal projects.
These incentives can increase property values in targeted areas by improving infrastructure, accessibility, and community facilities, making them more desirable places to live.
Tax policies and regulations also play a crucial role.
Negative gearing can increase demand for investment properties, pushing up prices.
And every time there is talk about removing negative gearing or amending taxes including land tax, investors shy away from our housing markets.
Australian housing market predictions for 2024
The last few years have shown us how hard it is to forecast property trends, and as always there will be headwinds and tailwinds buffeting our property markets.
Currently Australia’s housing is so undersupplied that I’ve rarely encountered a supply-demand inflection point like this that requires such attention.
And it’s only going to get worse.
Drivers of property price growth in 2024 will include:
Headwinds:
The strongest performers are likely to be Brisbane and Perth, where population growth is expected to outpace supply more than in other cities.
ANZ believes that real wage growth from early 2024 and modest interest rate easing from late 2024 will also support borrowing capacity and prices.
With the increase in value of houses strongly outpacing the apartment market recently, now with the differential in price between units and houses at the highest level on record, and with houses becoming more unaffordable for many, I can see strong capital growth ahead for family-friendly apartments in great neighbourhoods.
Here are Dr Andrew Wilson’s forecasts for 2024, and he has an enviable track record of getting it right.
8 economic and property trends to watch out for in 2024
1. The recovery phase of the market will continue in 2024
Property price growth will continue in 2024, albeit at a much lower rate and our housing markets will be fragmented as affordability will affect many homebuyers.
2. Interest rates will fall
Interest rates will peak in early 2024, if they haven’t already done so, but are likely to remain higher for longer than many would like as inflation will remain stubbornly higher than the RBA hopes for a little longer.
When interest rates eventually fall, which could be in late 2024, this is likely to encourage greater housing investment and more homebuyers.
3. Our property market will be even more fragmented
Of course, there was really never one Sydney property market or one Melbourne property market.
There are markets within markets – there are houses, apartments, townhouses and villa units located in the outer suburbs, middle ring suburbs, inner suburbs and the CBD, and they’re all behaving differently.
But our markets will be much more fragmented moving forward as some demographics struggle with cost-of-living, rent and mortgage cost increases (at a time of low wage growth) more than others.
It will either stop them from getting into the property markets or severely restrict their borrowing capacity which will negatively impact the lower end of the property markets.
Meanwhile, many first-home buyers who borrowed to their full capacity will have difficulty keeping up with their mortgage payments at the time of rising interest rates or when their fixed-rate loans convert to variable rates.
In other words, there will be little impetus for capital growth at the lower end of the property market.
That’s why I would only invest in areas where the locals’ income is growing faster than the national average – such as gentrifying suburbs – as locals will have higher disposable incomes and be able to and are likely to be prepared to pay a premium to live in these locations.
Many of these locations are the inner and middle-ring suburbs of our capital cities which are gentrifying as these wealthier cohorts move in.
At the same time, I see well-located properties in our capital cities outperforming regional property markets.
In fact our capital cities outperformed regional housing markets over the last year or so.
In the past one of regional Australia’s allure was its affordability compared to capital cities.
However, the surge in prices over the COVID lockdowns narrowed the price gap and this diminishing affordability undermines one of the key advantages regional markets had over metropolitan counterparts.
The measure of years to save a 20% deposit for the median regional home on a median regional income has risen from 7.4 years in early 2020 to 9.7 years, as opposed to 10.0 years for capital cities.
4. Migration
Net overseas migration to Australia will remain strong in 2024, however, the Federal government will lower the rate of temporary migrants coming to Australia.
This will keep driving rental growth as migrants tend to rent.
Only 38% of migrants own a home after being in Australia for five years, yet 71% of migrants own their home after 10 years.
5. Rents will keep rising
There is no end in sight for our rental crisis and rent prices will continue skyrocketing into 2024.
In fact, increased rental demand at a time of very low vacancy rates will see rentals continue to rise throughout the next few years.
6. Strategic investors will keep entering the property market
And they’ll squeeze out first-home buyers.
As rents continue to rise and the share of first-home buyers continues dropping, strategic investors with a realistic long-term focus will return to the market.
7. Neighbourhood will be more important than ever
In our new “Covid Normal” world, people will pay a premium for the ability to work, live and play within a 20-minute drive, bike ride or walk from home.
Many inner suburbs of Australia’s capital cities and parts of their middle suburbs already meet the 20-minute neighbourhood tests, but very few outer suburbs do because there is a lower developmental density, less diversity in its community, and less access to public transport.
And ‘neighbourhood’ is important for property investors too, and here’s why.
In short, it’s all to do with capital growth, and we all know capital growth is critical for investment success, or just to create more stored wealth in the value of your home.
This is key because we know that 80% of a property’s performance is dependent on the location and its neighbourhood – in fact, some locations have even outperformed others by 50-100% over the past decade.
And it’s likely that moving forward, thanks to the current environment, people will place an even greater emphasis on neighbourhood and inner and middle-ring suburbs where more affluent occupants and tenants will be living.
These ‘liveable’ neighbourhoods with close amenities are where capital growth will outperform.
What sets these neighbourhoods apart is the demographics – these locations are generally gentrifying or are lifestyle locations and destination locations that aspirational and affluent people want to live in.
So lifestyle and destination suburbs where there is a wide range of amenities within a 20-minute walk or drive are likely to outperform in the future, fetching premium prices in 2024.
8. Our economy and employment will remain robust
Sure the RBA continues in its efforts to slow down our spending a little in order to bring down inflation.
But despite this our economy will keep growing (albeit a little slower) and the unemployment rate will remain low thanks to the many new jobs created as our economy grows.
Local Capital Cities Market Predictions for 2024
As we know, there is not one Australian housing market, but markets within those markets, and again within those.
To give a better view of market predictions for the next 12 months in your area, here’s a breakdown of each local capital city’s market predictions for 2024.
Melbourne housing values lifted 0.27% in March according to Proptrack bringing them up 1.71% year-on-year, the strongest annual growth since June 2022.
Even so, prices in Melbourne remain 3.35% below their peak in March 2022.
The price recovery in Melbourne is lagging behind Sydney and Brisbane but remains ahead of Hobart and Canberra, with prices up 2.30% from
their January 2023 low.
At Metropole Melbourne, we’re finding that on-the-ground sentiment has changed and strategic investors and homebuyers are accepting that inflation has probably peaked and that interest rates are likely to peak in the next few months, so they are getting on with property decisions.
While more buyers are active in the market, there is currently a shortage of good quality stock on the market – while house prices have been resilient, Melbourne rental rates are experiencing weaker conditions due to a higher supply of rental properties, and less demand.
Sydney’s housing values also lifted 0.40% in March to a fresh peak according to Proptrack and despite an uplift in new listings hitting the market in Sydney, buyer demand has absorbed some of that increase with prices rising further.
Following a period of slower home price growth during the holidays, growth has reaccelerated with prices rising 1.79% in the first quarter of this year, the strongest quarterly growth since the three months to September 2023.
Over the last few months, the sentiment of both Sydney property buyers and sellers has changed and buyers are pushing up the price of well-located A-grade homes and “family-friendly” apartments which are still in short supply, but B-grade properties are taking longer to sell and informed buyers are avoiding C-grade properties.
This flight to quality means that moving forward the various sectors of the Sydney real estate market will be segmented, which is a more “normal” property market.
Sydney’s strong auction clearance trends are also a great “in time” indicator of market sentiment and a leading indicator of future property prices.
The Brisbane’s housing market remains one of the strongest performing markets over the past year.
Home prices in Brisbane have risen at a fast pace in the year to date, and are now 12.90% above March 2023 levels.
Proptrack reports that prices lifted a further 0.41% in March and are up 2.22% in the first quarter of 2024.
And there are many signs that Brisbane will still be one of the strongest housing markets in 2024.
Home prices have surpassed previous peaks, and if prices continue to grow at the same pace as over the past 3 months, home prices in Brisbane would be set to end the year up 8.0%, which would be close to double the average annual growth since 2010.
Our on-the-ground experience at Metropole Brisbane shows that there is emerging strong demand from both home buyers and property investors for A-grade homes and investment-grade properties.
Perth’s housing values have continued to outperform and Perth was the strongest market in the country for monthly and annual home price
growth.
Prices surged 0.99% in March according to Proptrack – the 20th consecutive month of growth – and are up 18.62% on March 2023 levels, the strongest pace of annual growth on records back to 2010.
Record low supply amid strong buyer demand has resulted in a sellers’ market.
The relative affordability of the city’s homes, population growth, and very tight rental markets are also supporting home values.
Adelaide’s housing values rose s 0.31% month-on-month in March to a new peak and are now up 2.24% year to date.
Adelaide is one of the country’s top performing markets, with home prices up 13.47% year-on-year.
The comparative affordability of the city’s homes has seen prices defy the significant increase in interest rates since May 2022.
Low stock levels are also intensifying competition, with home prices in Adelaide rising at a fast pace over the past year.
Canberra’s property prices rose 0.67% in March according to Proptrack, bringing prices up 2.22% above their March 2023 levels, the strongest annual growth since September 2022.
With the price recovery in Canberra remaining underway, prices are now 4.34% below their March 2022 peak after recovering just over a third of their decline.
Hobart’s housing values
Declining home prices in Hobart persisted in March, falling a slight 0.03%.
Hobart remains the weakest capital city market when comparing annual price growth (-1.65%), as well as the change from peak (-7.90%).
However, this comes after several years of outperformance, as well as strong growth during the pandemic which has seen affordability deteriorate.
Home prices in Hobart are still up 36.1% since March 2020.
Long-term forecasts for Australian property markets (2025-2030)
Over the next decade, demand for housing is expected to benefit from the triple boost of rising population, rising jobs, and rising income.
Collectively this wealth effect will add around $860 billion of income over the next decade, a significant portion of which is likely could be directed towards housing.
The average Australian tend to spend 13% to 20% of their income and either rent or mortgage servicing.
Of course, no matter how many times you forecast property prices, it will always be difficult to predict exactly where property markets and prices will be in three months’ time, let alone 6-7 years into the future.
After all, history shows us that some properties will outperform others by 50-100% in terms of capital growth, so strategic property investors who buy investment-grade properties could expect to see the value of their properties more than double within the next seven to 10 years.
So we always have to take forecasts for Australian property markets with a big pinch of salt.
But what I am confident we’ll see for our future property markets comes off the back of our strong projected population increase.
Currently, there are about 26.5 million Australians and Australia’s population is forecast to rise to 29 million people by 2030.
This means 3 million more people will need somewhere to live and this will underpin our property markets.
What we predict for Australia’s property market is that there will be many more high-rise towers of apartments, not just in the CBD but in our middle-ring suburbs.
In fact, we are already starting to see this, particularly in Melbourne and Sydney.
And we also expect there will be lots more medium-density housing – in particular townhouses will be a popular way to live with modern large accommodation on more compact blocks of land.
So what about property prices for 2025-2030?
Some economists predict a 40-50% growth in Australia’s house prices between now and 2030.
This isn’t surprising because it’s often said that over the long term, the average annual growth rate for well-located capital city properties is about 7% (and we know that prices have risen 6.8% per annum over the past 30 years), which would mean, in general, well-located properties should double in value every 7-10 years.
That would put Australia’s median dwelling price at around $1.1 million in 2030.
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Michael is a director of Metropole Property Strategists who help their clients grow, protect and pass on their wealth through independent, unbiased property advice and advocacy. He’s once again been voted Australia’s leading property investment adviser and one of Australia’s 50 most influential Thought Leaders. His opinions are regularly featured in the media.
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