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We know the once in a generation of property boom Australia experienced last year is now over.
But what’s really happening to property values now?
In a recent article Proptrack economist Paul Ryan explained what’s happening on the ground with the help of 5 charts
Property price growth is slowing
Ryan explains that in the year to October last year, prices grew at close to 25% – the fastest pace for more than 30 years.
But in the year to March, that rate was down to 18% – and prices have started to fall in Perth and were very slightly down in Melbourne in the month.
In monthly terms, growth has now slowed to just 0.3% in March, the slowest monthly rate since May 2020.
2. Regional areas continue to outperform capital cities – and the gap has widened.
As the pandemic took hold, lockdowns and remote work simultaneously made cities less desirable and regional areas more sought-after.
This trend persists in the housing market in 2022, and with capital city price growth slowing faster than regional price increases, it looks to continue for some time yet.
3. The smaller capital cities are outperforming
Ryan explains that:
Price growth has slowed all across the country – with the exception of South Australia and Brisbane.
Relative to the rate of growth we saw last spring, a slowing is evident across all other regions of the country.
4. Houses are still growing faster than units, but the difference has narrowed
Typically, houses and units see similar price growth. But not since the pandemic according to Ryan
In late 2021, annual house price growth was more than 14 percentage points higher than for units – 27% year-on-year versus 13% year-on-year for November 2021 respectively.
Reduced demand for inner-city units due to closed borders and preference shifts towards larger dwellings and regional areas have brought about a big divergence between the performance of houses and units.
It remains to be seen if this will reverse somewhat with reopened cities and borders.
5. Some locations are still growing strongly
Despite the slowing in price growth across the country, Ryan explains that prices are still increasing quickly in some regions – particularly in regional New South Wales and South East Queensland.
In fact, all of the top 10 performing regions over the past year are found in those parts of the country.
These regions have seen some of the strongest interstate migration flows since the start of the pandemic and continue to benefit from preference shifts among buyers.
Source of data: Proptrack April Housing Market Indicator Report